Top-25 foes meet in Big East clash

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/10/2009 - Villanova, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 13th-ranked Villanova Wildcats will try to continue their run tonight, as they host the 10th-ranked Marquette Golden Eagles in a Big East battle at the Pavilion.

The Wildcats have clawed their way back from a 2-3 start in league play by winning each of their past five outings. The conference winning streak is the team's longest since the 2005-06 season and includes a 102-85 besting of Syracuse on Saturday. Villanova now stands at 19-4 overall and its 7-3 conference record is good for the fifth position in the Big East.

One of the squads the Wildcats are chasing is Marquette, which held sole possession of first place for a few days before suffering a stunning 57-56 upset at South Florida on Friday. The Eagles had won their first nine conference contests prior to the setback that snapped the team's lengthy 12- game winning streak. Still, at 20-3 overall, Marquette has nothing to be ashamed about, and it has also fared well on the road, going 5-1 as the visitor.

The Eagles topped the Wildcats in the first meeting of the season, 79-72, and that win knotted the head-to-head series at 6-6.

The Eagles are a versatile and athletic club and they are generating a healthy 80.2 ppg, with four of their starters doing a majority of the damage. Jerel McNeal is one of the top players in the Big East and he enters the game just 21 points shy of breaking George Thompson's school record for career points at Marquette. The well-rounded McNeal is currently averaging a hardy 20.0 ppg to pace the Eagles and he also adds 4.6 rpg and 3.7 apg, in addition to shooting 47.2 percent from long range. Wesley Matthews checks in with 18.9 ppg and 5.6 rpg, and Lazar Hayward contributes 15.7 ppg and a team-high 8.7 rpg. Dominic James chips in with 11.7 ppg and he is handing out 5.1 apg to lead the team in that department. On Friday, McNeal poured in 22 points for the Eagles, but it wasn't enough in a shocking loss at USF. James and Matthews each had 11 points, and Hayward pulled down 14 caroms. Matthews, though, missed a six- footer with time winding down and Hayward's putback was also off the mark, as the Eagles were unable to overcome their shooting woes in the loss.

The Wildcats are another versatile team in the Big East and they head into this bout scoring 76.0 ppg and limiting foes to just 38.5 percent shooting from the floor. Dante Cunningham leads the team with both 17.1 ppg and 7.3 rpg and he is a big reason why Villanova has been able to outrebound opponent by a solid 5.1 rpg. Scottie Reynolds logs 14.9 ppg and a team-high 3.9 apg, while Corey Fisher chips in with 10.2 ppg. On Saturday, Cunningham went off for 31 points and nine boards to power the Wildcats in a win over Syracuse. Corey Stokes had 16 points and eight boards off the bench and Fisher added 14 points and six assists. The Wildcats shot an efficient 54.5 percent from the floor, while also winning the battle on the boards, 46-37.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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